Season Preview 23/24: EFL Championship, Part 4
The final instalment, including my beloved Baggie boys. Will I be biased? Read on to find out…
Southampton, 2nd
Last Season: 20th (Premier League) / Top Scorer: James Ward-Prowse (9) / FFT Prediction: 15th
Manager: Russell Martin / Key Man: James Ward-Prowse / Young Gun: Tino Livramento / Key Signing: Ryan Manning
Winners: 15/2 / Top 6: EVENS / Relegation: 25/1
It was about time the Saints had a reset. It has been looking as if they’d succumb to the drop over the last few years, and it was confirmed almost as soon as Nathan Jones stepped into the building. He’s not a bad manager, but clearly not ready for that level and was clearly too concerned with becoming the Brentmister general rather than securing survival. Things had been steadily declining under Hasenhüttl, as evidenced by consecutive 15th-placed finishes. But, the board may be wondering if keeping hold of him might’ve kept their slowly dimming Premier League light switched on for a little while longer.
In the end, they were well off the pace, finishing 11 points away from safety. Southampton sat in a relegation spot for the majority of the season and consecutively from week 14 until the curtain close. A late January splurge on European B-list stars including Mislav Oršić and the imposing Paul Onuachu was all a bit too little too late. Or a lot too late, Onuachu is 6 foot 7.
Rubén Sellés was the final man tasked with saving the Saints. He won a grand total of one game and was perhaps rightly not seen as man to take the club forwards. In his defence, he did inherit a bit of a mess — mainly in the defence — who conceded 72 goals, a record only bettered, or worsened, by Leeds. With 48 strikes, Leeds scored 12 more goals than Southampton’s 36, and were in the fight far longer. So, on paper, it all makes for pretty dismal reading.
I wouldn’t be so sure.
I often think that a club that has a good kit will do well. Maybe it’s a mentality thing, look good, feel good, play good. Or maybe it’s just my brain. It’s probably my brain. Last year’s outfit, like the club, was a monstrosity but this year’s is beautiful. Russell Martin, the Saint’s new manager, is also quite a handsome man who has proved himself capable at this level, both as a manager and a player. He, unlike most managers in this league, will not need to be too active in the market. Southampton’s youth-orientated policy may not have served up safety in the Premier League but it provides promise in the Championship.
There is an anticipation that some of the bigger names might go — James Ward-Prowse feels like an almost definite. As an aside, I know a guy who used to serve him at a service station before every game. Apparently, he used to buy a six-pack of condoms and a Pepperami, every single week. I don’t know if the two were connected but who’s to question him?
Bar the release of Theo Walcott and Mohammed Elyounoussi, the only major departure has been that of Mislav Oršić. The loss of these high earners will not be a huge loss, and, as they are all wingers one might assume that area will need strengthening. Fear not, 17-goal Nathan Tella is back after his loan spell at Burnley last year, Moussa Djenepo remains, as do Samuel Edozie and Kamaldeen Sulemana who both looked exciting last year. Moreover, Adam Armstrong may have failed to crack it in the Prem but he has scored a lot of goals at this level so I imagine he will feature prominently.
Che Adams faired ever so slightly better in the top tier, and the last time he played at this level he scored 22 goals. The squad is littered with other players who may or may not leave, including Tino Livramento, Gavin Buzunu, Carlos Alcaraz, Amel Bella-Katchop, Mo Salisu, Roméo Lavia, Duje Caleta-Carr, Kyle Walker-Peters and Joe Aribo — and that’s not even all of them. I don’t imagine Martin will be too keen to let his nucleus disappear, he’s known for his possession style of play and he has an abundance of quality to call upon for his system, which began to click for his Swansea side last year.
There will be a few more departures, but Martin is ahead of the curve having brought Ryan Manning with him from Swansea. Most would say Manning has been the best left-back/left-sided defensive operator in the league for the last few seasons, so his know-how will be a big bonus.
Overall, should the squad remain intact it is hard to see anything other than an immediate return. Martin is a bit of a gamble, but I think it’s a good fit. It could of course swing the other way, but I think they’re savvy enough to not let that happen. 2nd.
Stoke City, 15th
Last Season: 16th / Top Scorer: Tyrese Campbell (9) / FFT Prediction: 13th
Manager: Alex Neil / Key Man: Ben Wilmot / Young Gun: D’Margio Wright-Phillips / Key Signing: Michael Rose
Winners: 16/1 / Top 6: 15/8 / Relegation: 14/1
Stoke’s reliance on known quantities’, even from the Premier League level, has not served them well since their return to the Championship. Every season since their relegation, they have managed to find themselves in mid-table obscurity. So average have they become, that it seems almost a fever dream that they played in the Premier League for 10 years, and reached an FA Cup final.
Alex Neil did little to change the tide last year, but he remains, this time hopefully for a crack at all 46 games — he did have 40 last year so it’s not as if he’s not had time to implement his ideas. His ideas, unsurprisingly, have been to continue the Stoke tried-and-tested method of bringing in Championship tried-and-tested players. It’s tried-and-tested if you want to finish slap bang in the middle of the pack that is. Over the last few years, I have had Stoke down for a run at automatic promotion — their squads always looked Championship ready, and there was little to dissuade me of that fact when they signed the likes of Dwight Gayle last summer. But that didn’t exactly work out how the Coates’ will have hoped.
However, Michael Rose from Coventry, Daniel Johnson from Preston, Enda Stevens from Sheffield United, and Ben Pearson from Bournemouth are all logical signings. They replace the likes of Phil Jagielka, Sam Clucas, Aden Flint and Nick Powell, who, while all good players in their own right, were probably quite happy to collect the big wage packets offered by the parachute payments of fallen Premier League clubs, to then sit quite comfortably in 16th every season.
That is probably unfair, but I’m not entirely sure how their replacements present an upward trajectory, other than by providing a downward jolt in the purse strings. That may be a concern of Stoke’s, I’m not too sure of the financial situation in the Potteries, but there is enough in this squad to mount a playoff challenge. It’ll all depend on whether it can click. D’Margio Wright-Phillips (yep, son of) is an exciting prospect who has looked sharp in preseason and will likely be given more opportunity on the flanks. While, Jacob Brown and Tyrese Campbell both present goals threats, though neither really found their rhythm last season.
Dwight Gayle, who many Baggies fans wanted back at the club, managed to only bag 3 league goals in 22/23. That is surprising given his well-known pedigree at this level. Perhaps the issue is in the system, or perhaps there’s just something in the water — no player hit double figures last year. Alex Neil will need at least one of his 3 very capable frontmen to find form worthy of 15+ goals. If not, he may turn to the much-lauded youngster, Emre Tezgel, but that’s a lot of pressure on not-fully-developed shoulders.
Ultimately, I feel it’ll only be another season of mid-table stodge, some good runs of form will coincide with some dismal patches, so it’ll very much be the same again for Alex Neil, as it was with his predecessors. 15th.
Sunderland, 4th
Last Season: 6th / Top Scorer: Amad Diallo (14) / FFT Prediction: 16th
Manager: Tony Mowbray / Key Man: Danny Batth / Young Gun: Jack Clarke / Key Signing: Jenson Seelt
Winners: 18/1 / Top 6: 10/3 / Relegation: 10/1
I think everyone was taken by surprise when Sunderland finished in the final playoff spot. After struggling so miserably to get out of League One, after finally achieving it many did not think that Tony Mowbray would be able to guide the Black Cats to anything remotely close to 6th place. Over 46,000 fans packed into the Stadium of Light to see their semi-final win over Luton, and a club of that size should really be plying their trade at the highest level. They were eventually undone 2–0 in the return leg at Kenilworth Road, and I think it would be fair to say that the better team over the course of the season eventually won.
Sunderland fans will have been happy with their team’s performance no doubt and their recruitment policy has had a lot to do with their success. By way of comparison to Stoke’s, Sunderland have opted for a youth-orientated approach which has set a clear path for the club’s future development. The club’s owner, Kyril Louis-Dreyfuss is just 25 himself, I’m 26, so adding ‘just’ to that sentence does make me feel considerably better about my own age.
Everyone at the Stadium of Light will feel good about their age without having to supplement revealing the placement of their digits with a four-letter word. Before we delve into the youthful approach, we must first take note of the elder gentlemen in the team. Danny Batth was excellent last season, providing steel and grit, as well as experience, in the back line. He appeared the most time out of all the defenders. Ross Stewart set the early pace in the golden boot race, but injury hampered his season. He finished with 10 strikes in 13 — more than most club’s top scorers, who were not beset by injury.
His record was bettered only by Manchester United loanee, Amad Diallo, whose 14 goals from the wing set him apart from other wingers in the league. That is, of course, except for Jack Clarke. Much was made of Clarke during his breakthrough at Leeds, before a move to Tottenham, which came far too early. Now back in the Championship, he is finally coming good again. His 12 assists were a league high, and his 9 goals make him one of only handful of players to reach 20+ goals involvements for the season. I don’t see him wanting to leave, and I don’t see Sunderland letting him leave either. So, that’s good. He will be vital next year.
The signings made so far in the window have been well recieved, and form a clear plan. Jobe Bellingham (yep, brother of) comes in from Birmingham. The rumours around Birmingham, and Jobe’s actual home, the Black Country, are that he is better than his brother at this age — that’s a bold claim, and big boots to fill. At 17, Jude signed for Borussia Dortmund, while Jobe opted for Sunderland at the same age. So, it will be interesting to see if the comparisons are true — but a big season next year could command a sizeable fee. Imagine a Bellingham-Rice-Bellingham axis for England. Ooo baby.
I am from the same town as the Bellingham brothers, Stourbridge, and it’s interesting that it had never been classed as Birmingham until they came out of the woodwork. Funny how that works.
6 foot 4 forward Luis Semedo comes in permanently from Benfica to support Ross Stewart. Loanees Ellis Simms and Joe Geldhart were capable deputies to the big Scot, even if the latter was slightly underwhelming. Semedo seems to fit a similar profile to Stewart so there’ll undoubtedly be a learning partnership going on there too. With 68 scored last year, goals shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Diallo won’t be returning, which could be a stumbling block.
Saving the best for last, Jenson Seelt looks a really good pick up from PSV. He played the majority of his football in their second string, who play in the second division of Dutch football, but notched 7 goals in 63 appearances from centre-back. He is also 6 foot 4, so his imposing presence alongside the experienced Batth will hopefully reduce the 55 Mowbray’s men let in last year.
Sunderland’s trajectory seems to be a lot clearer than most, a lot will have them down for a playoff place bare minimum. Automatics are viable, but the strength of others around them will prove too much to handle. They are, however, hungry, well run and now more experienced at this level. Expect them to be right up there, many others do. 4th.
Swansea City, 14th
Last Season: 10th / Top Scorer: Joël Piroe (19) / FFT Prediction: 8th
Manager: Michael Duff / Key Man: Matt Grimes / Young Gun: Nathan Wood / Key Signing: Jerry Yates
Winners: 25/1 / Top 6: 11/4 / Relegation: 7/1
Russell Martin and 10-assit Ryan Manning gone for the bright lights of Hampshire, a 10th placed finish showed signs of real promise after the disappointing 15th place positioning in 21/22. Michael Duff looks a very exciting and capable replacement having performed excellently at Cheltenham Town before leading Barnsley to the League One playoff final only to be undone by the last-minute heirloom of Josh Windass’ family.
Swansea both scored a lot and conceded a lot last year. They did only end up 3 points off the final playoff spot, but 64 goals against was markedly more than those around them. Their end-of-season run-in was a lot more promising, keeping 5 clean sheets in their final 8 games. There will be a feeling that the Swans can continue the momentum of their good form, but the loss of Martin may mean a more meandering start.
Joël Piroe continued his breath-taking form to score 19 goals, he’s now scored 44 in 92 starts in all competitions for the club. Keeping hold of him will be vital, but there are clubs sniffing and, at 6 foot 1, and still only 23, plenty who would take a gamble on him. The rumour mill has thrown up Leeds United as his next destination, it’d be a hard one to turn down.
If Piroe does go, Liam Cullen sits in wait. He performed well last year scoring 9 in 32, and Oliver Ntcham also threw his fair share of onions into the bag, scoring 8 in 44. Duff looks to be planning for life with Piroe already, though, as he has signed Jerry Yates from relegated Blackpool. Yates has performed exceptionally over the last four seasons, scoring 55 goals — including 14 last year. He will have been wanted by a lot of clubs, so securing his signature shows intent. The speedy young legs of Josh Key also come in from Exeter, though there are question marks over his ability to perform at this level, while Josh Ginnelly comes in after a strong scoring season in Scotland with Hearts, though there will be similar questions surrounding him.
Joining Manning out of the exit door is Joel Latibeaudiere. The ball-playing centre-back has signed for Coventry and will be a big miss.
I can’t see the Swans doing much other than circling around mid-table. They still have some excellent midfield operators in Matt Grimes and Joe Allen at their disposal, but, truthfully, they’ve been pushed down the pecking order due to the strength of other teams. It’s a hard old league to predict, and I will likely be completely off the mark here, but I think they’ll be in and around this region. Most clubs in this peloton bunch are very interchangeable, such is the stodge of the Championship. 14th.
Watford, 3rd
Last Season: 11th / Top Scorer: João Pedro (11) / FFT Prediction: 4th
Manager: Valérien Ismaël / Key Man: Ken Sema / Young Gun: Yáser Asprilla / Key Signing: Rhys Healey
Winners: 16/1 / Top 6: 2/1 / Relegation: 12/1
It was a hugely drab season for a club many anticipated would be in the playoff hat come May. Alas, they were not, falling 6 points short after falling foul to some unsavoury form in the last third of the season. Rob Edwards was given little time and was sacked at the end of September. He then went on to lead neighbours Luton to playoff glory. Watford’s board don’t seem to fathom that the Championship is not won or lost in the open 10 weeks or so, you can ask Mark Robins about that. Then came big names Slaven Bilić and Chris Wilder. Both appointments made complete sense given they’d both won promotion from the league before, but they just couldn’t deliver the immediate up change in fortunes the board were clearly after.
Now it is down to Valérien Ismaël, who worked wonders at Barnsley with his inimitable 3-pronged attack style to lead them to an unlikely playoff birth. This was then transferred to West Brom, where he showed promise early on but wasn’t given a full season to implement his tactics. Since, he’s been at Beşiktaş and he didn’t last too long there either. His appointment is an interesting one. It’s either been made because they’ve hired everyone else or because they’re attempting to have a crack at the league with a specific identity and plan that extends beyond having players who should be in the Premier League in your team.
Top scorer João Pedro (11) was an early departure to Brighton, with Craig Cathcart, Tom Cleverly, Mario Gaspar and William Troost-Ekong’s exits clear the wage bill. Additions have come in the shape of Tom Ince (yep, son of) who was Reading’s standout in a relegated side, and Rhys Healey comes in to provide the attacking impetus the Hornets sorely missed last year. Healey has come in from Toulouse and has a very strong goal record both in England and France. At 28, he is in his prime and this is a move that makes a lot of sense. I expect him to be up there in the goal charts. Ismaël has also plumped for a return to his old club by bringing in former West Brom and England midfielder, Jake Livermore. A man who has lost his legs, but will bring knowledge of Ismaël’s system, steeliness and experience to the ranks.
Given last season, my prediction might seem really bold. And, truth is, I’m purely going off a feeling. There is just something within me that screams ‘jammy’ when I look at Watford. There’s cutting-edge analysis if you’d ever seen it. They will sign more players, but there is quality still existing throughout this team. Ken Sema was excellent last year, and Ismaïla Sarr is somehow still here — he must really love Hertfordshire or someone has some indecent images of him. You’ve also got the promise of Yáser Asprilla and Ryan ‘rock’ Porteous.
When the signings fall, this might seem a little less ridiculous. But, this is the game, making safe predictions is boring. This one is my big, left-field shout for the year. 3rd.
West Bromwich Albion, 9th
Last Season: 9th / Top Scorer: Daryl Dike/Brandon Thomas-Asante (7) / FFT Prediction: 5th
Manager: Carlos Corberan / Key Man: Okay Yokuşlu / Young Gun: Ethan Ingram / Key Signing: N/A
Winners: 16/1 / Top 6: 15/8 / Relegation: 11/1
The biggest club obviously comes last. I apologise in advance if this becomes long. There’s a lot to get off my chest, so tonally this will be different. I am absolutely not unbiased in any way.
As a club, we have a really awful mentality. We allow our young players to leave for local rivals, and seldom to we allow them an opportunity in the first team. We let Tim Iroegbunam leave for Villa last year, and Rico Richards has also joined him there this year. We have an excellent academy, and we don’t use it.
To make matters worse, we have an owner, who allegedly is one of the richest in country, but is taking money out of the club. The fans planned protests last year, but after the wonders that Don Carlos performed, they elected to support him and the team instead. That is what Black Country folk are like. All we want is to get behind our club and give them the chance to do us proud. When The Hawthorns is roaring there aren’t many better grounds in the second tier.
Last season started dismally, we didn’t play badly but we just could not find the back of the net. Bruce got a lot of flack, and some of it was quite nasty, but he had to go. Bringing in Carlos Corberan was a breath of fresh air, and our rise up the league was well documented, including 8 wins out of 9 between weeks 18 and 27. The signings of Jed Wallace, John Swift, Brandon Thomas-Asante and Okay Yokuşlu were all excellent additions to a squad full of players that had already been there and done it. Unfortunately, there wasn’t enough in the tank and a final day loss to Swansea, after being 2–1 up, saw us finish 9th. Much was made of the late-season injury to Alex Palmer who shone between the sticks, and many attributed his loss as a key factor in our derailing.
Not too many will be dissatisfied given the start, but overall, the expectation was that we had the means to be a playoff side. As for this season, our twazzock of an owner has given us nothing, and we might be the only side in the league to have made literally zero additions. No loans, no youth players, nothing. Dara O’Shea left for Burnley for 7m, I like him but opinion is divided, while Jake Livermore and Tom Rogic have left to ease the burden of the wage bill. Karlan Grant, who offered very little last season, has also moved over to Cardiff to join up with Callum Robinson.
That leaves Thomas-Asante and Daryl Dike to lead the line. We don’t play them together, though I think this could be a good option for us. Both scored 7 league goals but had injury spells. If they stay fully fit, which is unlikely for Dike, they could both finish on 13+ which would be very handy. We still need another forward option and we have youth players in Jovan Malcolm, Mo Faal, and Reyes Cleary who could all be given a shot. Ethan Ingram is the big academy talent, likened to Trent, it would be good to see the England youth international make some headway in the first team… before we inevitably sell him to Villa.
Beyond that, preseason form has been patchy and we may have to rely on free transfers again this year, with the possibility of small fees for lower-league players of Thomas-Asante’s ilk. Jayson Mulumby looks to be heading out the door next, he was our player of the year last season and has real bite in the middle of the park. Okay Yokuşlu looks to be staying, and I’m not being biased when I say he is the best midfielder in the league. Alex Mowatt is back from his loan at Middlesbrough, he can perform and will be given a chance.
Meanwhile, John Swift recorded 6 goals and 9 assists, which was an okay return but not his best, and Jed Wallace was absolutely tireless on the right all season but we are all hoping he manages more than 4 goals next season. Finally, Grady Diangana. He is obviously extremely talented and we paid a lot of money for him that we will never get back. He can do it, we all believe he can, and this will be a make-or-break season for him.
The defence needs a fresh like of paint, but Don Carlos is the real deal and I back him, despite the boardroom issues, to take us close to the playoffs. We have the kit (which is obviously important), and we have enough quality, but in the end, unless we start to move in the market it could be a lot worse than I’m predicting. Corberan, if he starts well, may be tempted elsewhere. He’s a Premier League manager in waiting and we are lucky to have him. Could be as low as 20th, but I have hope for the Baggie boys. 9th.
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That rounds off my EFL Championship Predictions. The full table is below. Do you agree or do you think I’m absolutely crackers?
1 Leicester City
2 Southampton
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3 Watford
4 Sunderland
5 Middlesbrough
6 Millwall
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7 Leeds
8 Norwich
9 West Brom
10 Coventry
11 Blackburn
12 Ipswich
13 Preston
14 Swansea
15 Stoke
16 Birmingham
17 Bristol City
18 Hull
19 Huddersfield
20 Cardiff
21 QPR
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22 Plymouth
23 Sheffield Wednesday
24 Rotherham
