23/24 Season Preview: The Premier League, Part 1
Ah, the land of milk of honey. The abundance of the Premier League never fails to deliver… in abundance. Last season may have ended up rather predictably when it came to the champions (which is always good for predictions), but everywhere else there were surprises. It would have been first on my list of predictions had West Brom been promoted, but they weren’t, so it’s not. Instead, the second-best league in the world is second. That’s not treating the league with disdain, I’m just telling the truth.
I am joined for these previews by Louis Yianni, who has more to say about football than he does on his exceptional beard. Which is odd, because he has a lot to say about that too. I wonder if you can work out which team he supports. I won’t be giving them the dismal write up I gave the Albion, even though they probably deserve it — and paid far more for it.
I am a big Premier League watcher, its ability to ‘dispense joy and misery at random mimics life’, apparantly, and it makes it all the sweeter that it is always joy for me, given I have no skin in this game. That is other than my Fantasy team which I fall foul to, without exception, by game week two. Ball knowledge is not required, but luck is.
This season, as with any other, has already delivered drama without a ball being kicked to use the old adage. The exodus of some of the league’s elder statesmen to the Saudi Pro League has left a vacuum we should all hope to be filled by talented youngsters. And, while the league is almost certainly already tied up by treble-winning Manchester City, the race for a place in the top four is as oversubscribed as it ever has been. While Burnley return with a style that stands as a complete antithesis to their Sean Dyche days (as opposed to an incomplete antithesis), there’s a brand new underdog story every football fan can get behind in Luton’s first season in the top flight under its rebranding back in 1992/93.
So, here comes the inevitable… let’s kick off.
Arsenal
Last Season: 2nd / Top Scorer: Martin Ødegaard/Gabriel Martinelli (15) / FFT Prediction: 4th
Manager: Mikel Arteta / Key Man: Bukayo Saka / Young Gun: Folarin Balogun / Key Signing: Declan Rice
Winners: 9/2 / Top 4: 1/3 / Relegation: 500/1
Overview: Just one loss and one draw in the pre-World Cup period had many wondering whether Arsenal could do the unthinkable and pip Pep to an almost certain title. In the end, it was unthinkable as Pep’s stallions came racing through the final furlongs with their traditional consummate ease. Still, one cannot bemoan Arsenal’s season. Exhilarating, improvement and growth are three words that might best describe 2022/23 under Mikel Arteta. The task this time will be going one better and beating his old mentor. It’s an intriguing set-up to a season, and one I anticipate could go down to the wire.
With the addition of Champions League football once again back at the Emirates, a squad of greater depth and quality, on top of what they already possess, is needed. Arteta has followed Guardiola’s suit in ensuring his squad is constantly evolving. Granit Xhaka is so far the only major first-team player to leave, and while he performed well last year, his replacement is younger and better.
Luke: Signing Declan Rice is a real signal of intent, obviously. There’s little that needs to be said there. Jurriën Timber and Kai Havertz are also impressive additions that add depth and class — one more so than the other. Havertz may not have performed exceptionally over the last few seasons, but he has won a Champions League. Arteta will have a plan for him — he’s not the kind of manager to splash the cash for no reason.
It is inconceivable to me that Folarin Balogun may not be given an opportunity after his season in Ligue 1 last year. I understand that if they can get £50m for him that would be excellent for the kitty, but Nketiah has never really found consistent form, and while Gabriel Jesus is world-class, his figures last year were not exactly what many would’ve hoped. That being said, to have four players in double figures — and not just by the skin of their teeth either — was so, so important last year, so much so I have dubbed them ‘the four horsemen of the not-quite-apocalypse’.
City may have had a singular machine, but Arsenal’s shared approach was collectively more profitable — which probably says more about the Norweigenator (Norweigen Terminator? No? Okay). It will be key for Martinelli, Ødegaard, Jesus and Saka to hit similar heights. The latter of those players is, for me, the standout. He is still only 21, and we could have an English 20-goal-a-season winger in our midst. Scary.
Is there enough to beat Pep? Probably not… yet. Is there enough to best the resurgence of others around them? I reckon so. 2nd.
Louis: Arsenal’s recruitment this summer has been interesting so far and given the values spent, I dare say it may be over. Declan Rice was somewhat of a coup but the introduction of Kai Havertz, a player I’ve had the displeasure of watching game-in-game-out for three years, will prove a serious dilemma for Arteta. Does he fill the second attacking midfielder spot next to Odegaard with Rice behind them to form a dynamic albeit very forward-thinking midfield or does he play as a centre-forward at the expense of Gabriel Jesus? I am a firm believer that Havertz creates more problems than he solves at Arsenal.
The Champions League could prove too taxing for Mikel’s men, and, while I think we’ll no doubt see ‘Arteta-ball’ in full flow again soon, this season will prove far more challenging for this young Arsenal side than the last. 4th.
Aston Villa
Last Season: 7th / Top Scorer: Ollie Watkins (15) / FFT Prediction: 10th
Manager: Unai Emery / Key Man: Douglas Luiz / Young Gun: Jacob Ramsey / Key Signing: Moussa Diaby
Winners: 150/1 / Top 6: 10/3 / Relegation: 25/1
Overview: A lot of Villa fans would have told you in the opening weeks of last season that, despite the promise of the transfer window, avoiding relegation would have been the aim. That is because, in those opening weeks, Villa lost four of their opening five. Things didn’t improve until October 21st, when Stevie G was sacked, and perennial Europa League merchant, Unai Emery, strode into Aston like a with all the swagger of a Peaky Blinder minus the flat cap (wrong part of Birmingham, I know).
The impact was immediate. Before Emery was even through the door, Villa had beaten Brentford 4–0 (they did then lose to Newcastle 4–0 the following week…). Alas, when Emery was in the building, impressive back-to-back wins against Manchester United and Brighton were achieved before further triumphs against Spurs, Leeds and Southampton were back-ended by a run of losses versus Leicester, City and Arsenal. Would it be a season of yo-yoing form for the Villains?
No, it would not. Only two losses between week 25 and 38 — both 1–0’s — were massively outweighed by 10 wins from those final 13. Not quite a yo-yo, more just a yo. A 7th placed finish was more than deserved, with just one point off a Europa League place, the securing of a Conference League place was met with jubilant in Aston — a place where jubilant is seldom seen.
Luke: In the run-in, Villa were defensively excellent. 7 clean sheets in 13 is not bad going at all. Tyrone Mings, a 30-year-old professional footballer with England caps, even said that Emery taught him things about his position he didn’t even know. He was a standout in the backline, as was Ollie Watkins at the other end of the pitch — 15 league goals is his best return in the Premier League, and, now 27, he’s going to be hitting his peak on form.
Emery has been backed in the transfer window, adding extra steel to the backline with the addition of Pau Torres from former club Villareal, alongside the exciting addition of Moussa Diaby. The winger has goal involvements bleeding out of him, notching a combined 31 goals from the flanks in the last two years. Youri Tielemans is, at 26, an experienced cup-winning operator in English football while Cam Archer’s return from his profligate loan spell at Middlesbrough, and a victory at the U21 Euros over the summer, will ease the burden on the full-strung shoulders of Ollie Watkins. Aaron Ramsey (not that one) was equally as impressive as Archer last season, and he will undoubtedly be given an opportunity in the first team.
I’ve seen some people predict Villa to flounder because of the addition of the European schedule, but they have immense depth. McGinn, Coutinho, Douglas Luiz, Tielemans, Buendía, Kamara, Ramsey 1, Ramsey 2, Iroegbunam, Dendoncker, Azaz are all players who can play centrally in the midfield. That’s without even getting onto the centre-back options. I won’t, because just listing player names is not exactly cutting-edge analysis, which is obviously what you’re getting here. What I will say is that people shouldn’t doubt Emery, he’s done this before — many times. Winning the Conference League, and securing a strong league finish will be the aim. They will do it. I hate it. But they will do it. 7th.
Louis: Unai Emery is probably Aston Villa’s best bit of business since fleecing Liverpool for £40m in exchange for Christian Benteke in 2015/16. He has brought a wealth of experience from mistakes and successes in equal measure from his time in England, Spain and France as well as an exciting, aggressive and well-structured system of football. Prior to his appointment in November 2022, Villa sat 14th in the League with less goals (13) than points (14). Had the League been judged on the 24 games Emery oversaw following his appointment, Villa would have finished 5th in the League.
Emery’s influence on Villa is not just proven in hypotheticals, however. The club’s ability to attract and retain exciting talent has proven vital with around £70m spent on arrivals already this summer. Moussa Diaby will be an incredibly exciting addition to Villa’s right flank while Pau Torres, who was rumoured with moves to top European club’s last season, provides reinforcement at the back. I am slightly unsure how much of an impact Youri Tielemans will make and I feel he may even struggle to fit into Emery’s energy-demanding system but he’s a great option for depth in a technical capacity. Ollie Watkins’ name has been brandished around far less this summer than it was last year but if Harry Kane departs Spurs and Ivan Toney is banned until January, I suspect he’ll be high on their list to replace him.
While I think Villa will struggle to improve upon their position next season, I think they will close the points gap and retain an impressive position in the lower European spots. 7th.
Bournemouth
Last Season: 15th / Top Scorer: Phillip Billing (7) / FFT Prediction: 20th
Manager: Andoni Iraola / Key Man: Lloyd Kelly / Young Gun: Milos Kerkez / Key Signing: Milos Kerkez
Winners: 500/1 / Top 6: 50/1 / Relegation: 12/5
Overview: Last season everyone expected them to go down. They were virtually the only certainty that most wouldn’t even say was a prediction, but more a formality. There is nothing more healing than an entire society being wrong about something — not because it's embarrassing for literally everyone, but because it provides the kind of unexpected results we all love seeing in this bloody wonderful game.
However, that being said, after a season that started with a 9–0 loss to Liverpool, it’s fair to say that Bournemouth’s first season back in the Premier League wasn’t actually as remarkable as fans had hoped it would be. People brandished Gary O’Neil’s short stint in-charge as a ‘great escape’ but it may be better characterised by three perfect results. Three wins in April against the three teams that ended up being relegated proved about as decisive as it gets. Forget consistency, if you can beat the teams that need to leapfrog you to escape relegation, you’ll be absolutely fine.
Despite his evident success, Gary O’Neil is not their manager anymore. In a slightly harsh and bizarre turn of events, the board opted to appoint Andoni Iraola. Many English football fans likely had to search whether his former club, Rayo Vallecano, were actually in La Liga at the time of his departure and, to their pleasant surprise, they would have seen that he steered them to consecutive mid-table finishes in Spain’s top flight following a promotion campaign in 2020/21. They have decided to appoint a pretty unremarkable manager that doesn’t speak English and has managed in the top flight for only two seasons, but it may be one for the future. It’s certainly risky, but it could prove a masterstroke. Who knows? Not us, but that’s why we love it.
Luke: Bournemouth’s incomings have been very un-Bournemouth. Justin Kluivert is not just the name, he also has proved to be a handful on his day. And, despite remarkably still being only 24, has time on his side. Hamed Traorè and Romain Faivre are a similar age to Kluivert and offer goals from midfield also, though the latter has already been loaned out. Phillip Billing may well leave the Jurassic Coast this summer, and while his towering frame may be hard to replicate, at least depth is already in the building.
Additionally, the most exciting of the summer’s quartet of incomings is Milos Kerkez. The Hungarian left-back has won plaudits throughout Europe for his displays for AZ Alkmaar last year, and at 19 he has bags of potential, a mean left foot and a goal in him. He presents somehwat of a coup, and a clear recruitment direction for the Cherries. I may hasten to add that he may well be an upgrade on the departed Jordan Zemura.
I suspect many won’t be so quick to damnate Bournemouth this season, though goals may well be the major issue I anticipate Dominic Solanke to finally explode after a promising season. But, of course, well all know that second-season-syndrome is real. With all three promoted clubs staying put last year, at least one must fall prey to SSS’s ways. For my money, it won’t be Bournemouth. 16th.
Louis: Bournemouth’s squad has a strange peppering of raw quality to it but it’s quality that feels very Championship. Bournemouth actually feel the most Championship side in the League this season and considering Luton Town have just been promoted, that’s pretty Championship. With that in mind, they are going down. An unremarkable manager and an unremarkable team.
A lot of work has to be done to galvinise this group of players. Remember, last season finished with four straight losses once survival had all but be confirmed. To me, that screams mentality issues. Perhaps that is the reason for O’Neil’s departure, but he at least deserved to stay on to rectify this after guiding them to unexpected safety.
I just don’t think they’ll improve from where they were — they’ve thrown away a manager who delivered in favour of an unknown, who may have done well at Rayo Vallecano, but its a huge risk in the Premier League. The signings aren’t all that exhilerating and defensive frailities are a serious concern. So, while Kerkez is a good addition, is he going to provide the solidity to significantly reduce the 71 goals against last time out? Not on your nelly. Bye, bye Bournemouth. 18th.
Brentford
Last Season: 9th / Top Scorer: Ivan Toney (20) / FFT Prediction: 18th
Manager: Thomas Frank / Key Man: Bryan Mbuemo / Young Gun: Aaron Hickey / Key Signing: Kevin Schade
Winners: 500/1 / Top 6: 11/1 / Relegation: 17/2
Overview: FourFourTwo’s 18th place prediction last season now looks completely laughable. Predictions are hard, we get it. But, come on. 18th — seriously? I do love FourFourTwo but they do love to get it wrong.
Former Brentford Co-Director of Football, Rasmus Ankersen, often refers to the dangers of using the concept of ‘outcome bias’ in performance analysis. Outcome bias is the formation of a conclusion that good results are always the consequence of good decisions. Outcome bias does not account for an incredibly important and largely immeasurable part of football: luck. In the context of Brentford however, I am confident that their success is a result of good decisions and the development of a club philosophy, recruitment system and coaching team that has directly influenced their strong performances in the Premier League over the last two seasons. The proof of that is very much in the pudding.
The only team to best Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City all season, Brentford fans will be hoping exceptional performances of that ilk can be transferred more consistenly across the season. 58 goals for and 46 against present a decent balance, but the obvious loss of Ivan Toney will be a concern, given that he scored 20 of that 58. One might consider that his lengthy ban may derail Brentford’s seemingly neverending steamroll up the league.
The aim will be to better the 9th place finish of last term, but the moneyball approach is becoming harder and harder to get right as seasons pass. Considerable outlays on Nathan Collins from Wolves and Kevin Schade from Freiburg, both for £20m+, are both ones for the future but significant expenditures. While Mark Flekken also signs from Freiburg for £11m, money that Brentford hope to recoup from the inevitable departure of David Raya. A striker, however, is very much needed — it will be extremely difficult to find a man who can deliver the numbers Toney does.
Luke: Many doubt what Thomas Frank is capable of. Ivan Toney’s loss may not be directly remidied by the incoming of a like-for-like striker but instead a tinkering to the system may be the go-to option. Expect to see more from Yoane Wissa, the DR Congo international has two years of Premier League experience under his still-young belt, and has produced a handy 7 goals in each campaign. He will need to step up to the plate as part of a scintillating attack featuring Schade and Bryan Mbeumo, the latter of whom provided double figures in goal involvements last year. An injury to any of these three will be a major loss, so Frank really does need to bring in an additional option with the still unproven Keane Lewis-Potter and forgotten Sergi Canos the only immediate replacements.
I have no real defensive concerns here, Rico Henry and Aaron Hickey are both excellent full-backs while the two centre-back positions will be shared by four men of exceptional ability. Newby Collins will learn a lot from Ethan Pinnock, Kristoffer Ajer, and last season’s undoubted standout free agent signing, Ben Mee. The midfield axis will stay the same. Janelt-Jensen-Nørgaard bring nous and a consistency that proved an extremely dependable trio in 2022/23 while Josh Dasilva often has FPL managers salivating in disperate moments, and is a capable deputy when called upon.
More additions need, namely that striker. But a strong start, coupled with Toney’s return, could see a strong end to the season and a potential bettering of 9th. I think it’s going to be a tall order, even for Thomas Frank. Toney’s goals were the difference last year, and two weeks out and lacking a replacement does not bode well. I’m almost certainly going to be wrong, though. 13th.
Louis: Unfortunately for Brentford, they have suffered a severe piece of bad luck before they’ve even kicked a ball. Ivan Toney has been banned from football until January 2024. A player that scored over a third of their goals in 2022/23 will now miss half the season and with clubs like Manchester United and potentially Spurs in the market for a top striker, he may not even be around for the second half of this season. Their squad is strong but reliance on Bryan Mbuemo to deliver goals, considering he was used most frequently as a winger last season, will be a serious issue for Brentford. They need to recruit a true striker and quickly, otherwise a difficult season may turn into a bad one.
I think Brentford and Thomas Frank’s style of football are far too strong to be relegated but without Toney’s goals, their plan to slowly climb the league will be hampered this season. But then again, anything can happen. It probably won’t though. 14th.
Brighton
Last Season: 6th / Top Scorer: Alexis Mac Allister (10) / FFT Prediction: 11th
Manager: Roberto De Zerbi / Key Man: Lewis Dunk / Young Gun: Julio Enciso/Evan Ferguson / Key Signing: João Pedro
Winners: 66/1 / Top 6: 7/4 / Relegation: 25/1
Overview: Blah, blah, blah. You run out of superlatives eventually, don’t you?
A club that showed so much promise under Graham Potter and that was subsequently ransacked for players and staff alike somehow got even better under De Zerbi and it’s hard not to enjoy watching their free-flowing, dynamic passing football until it’s your time to play them. A 6th placed finish was probably no less than they deserved and I put them in the same category as Aston Villa who have just got everything right in the last 12 months from managerial appointments to their recruitment strategy. It will be interesting to see how they replace Alexis Mac Allister and Levi Colwill, but, they have been busy already in the transfer market. Acquisitions of Joao Pedro from Watford, James Milner from Liverpool and Mahmoud Dahoud look to be really smart signings to compliment their depth which they will need with European football on the itinerary this season.
Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen also joins from Anderlecht to make up for Robert Sanchez, who looks to be on his way out. Evan Ferguson, Danny Welbeck and Denis Undav all underlined their credentials in various patches last season in the striking department, and all will be required to perform both at home and abroad in 2023/24. The rise of Ferguson may be the most exciting, but only a fool would sleep on Undav. It may have taken him a while to get going, but now he is purring he will be a really really handy addition for a jam-packed fixture list that is about to befall the seasiders.
Luke: My main concern for Brighton is actually the performance of those around them. If a bigger club flatlines and wields the axe early on, De Zerbi will undoubtedly be one of the first names to take over — just as Graham Potter was. Now, no offence to Brightonians and Hovonians, but they are not the size of the big six, and De Zerbi, as excellent as he is, will find it hard to turn down a lucrative offer. That is, of course, completely hypothetical, but a hypothetical that often becomes sharp reality in a matter of months.
It is coy to suggest, however, that Brighton would not immediately know who is going to replace him. Potter-to-De Zerbi was the best thing that happened to the club last year, bar their Europa League qualification which was obviously a result of that transition, so Potter-to-De Zerbi was actually the best thing that happened to the club last year.
More players absolutely need to come in, while the midfield is stacked, the defence needs some additions. As good as Dunk and co are, the gruelling schedule could prove their undoing. I’m sure the board-backed De Zerbi has it mapped out, and he’ll no doubt unearth twenty gems and lead the club to a European semi-final. Watch out for Simon Adingra too, he’ll be the latest off the unheard-of conveyor belt Brighton never fail to produce — he smacked it about in Belgium last season. De Zerb is a the man, 6th could be a reach, but it’ll be near enough. 8th.
Louis: Honestly sick of this lot. They are like an annoying little brother that can beat you on FIFA and won’t let you forget it. Roberto De Zerbi will wake up the morning of the first league game of the season without his best centre-back and his two best midfielders from last season, he’ll spike his hair up with a handful of Brylcreem and still pull off an attractive 3–0 win.
Brighton seem to have acquired such a diverse range of talent that it’s hard to pick who their key players or ones-to-watch even are but that is testament to their recruitment strategy and talent identification. Brighton scored the 5th most goals but conceded the 10th most goals in the League and with the added pressure of European football, particularly considering the gruelling Europa League travel schedule, I expect it will be hard for them to maintain the consistency of quality they exhibited last season. They finished as the 6th most consistent team in terms of squad rotation, with 4 of the other top 6 (excluding Arsenal who topped the table for squad consistency) playing no form of European football.
Brighton will no doubt lose that ability to field a consistent lineup with the demands of European football this season and I expect that, along with being unable to replace two or three critical players, will leave them further down the table. 9th.
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That rounds off our first five predictions, do you agree? Join us next time for the next five teams.
