23/24 Season Preview: EFL Championship, Part 2
No preamble about the sorry state of my club, and no analogies about Blackpool-based fairground rides either. Shall we jump straight in where we left off? Yes, let's.
Hull City, 18th
Last Season: 15th / Top Scorer: Oscar Estupiñán (13) / FFT Prediction: 17th
Manager: Liam Rosenior / Key Man: Ozan Tufan / Young Gun: Regan Slater / Key Signing: Liam Delap
Winners: 40/1 / Top 6: 9/2 / Relegation: 11/2
I am fully aware that this is one of those predictions that could go horribly wrong. After the deluge of signings this time last year, many of whom were international footballers — think Pelkas, Sinik, Seri, Tetteh, Tufan and Estupiñán — you would’ve been forgiven for thinking Hull City could’ve once again been on their way to the promised land. But, after 8 points from their opening 4 games, and 7 goals in the opening 6 games for Oscar Estupiñán, a rather turgid run of form followed before stabilisation was secured via Liam Rosenior’s appointment. 15th place was a fair finish in my book, you can’t simply buy your way out of the Championship.
I mean, you probably could, if you bought players who knew the league well enough.
Estupiñán’s 13 league goals show his quality, but in slowing down later in the season, Rosenior will know he has a striker of quality on his hands, though the hope will be he can replicate that throughout a 46-game season and not just in the opening 6. Just 6 goals in his 23 other starts is not awful reading, but it is indicative of my point. If he can fire, there is a 20+ goal-a-season striker in there. Hull may (may), unlike most other teams at this stage, feel relatively relaxed about their striking options as a result.
He will be supported by the only major incoming of the window so far in the loan signing of Liam Delap (yep, son of). Delap has had a couple of Championship loans but he’s yet to set the league alight, I don’t massively fancy him to do that at Hull.
There is, in my mind, a bit of a concern. As we near the season’s curtain raiser, there have been no significant defensive reinforcements added. This is especially pertinent given the Tigers conceded 61 league goals last year — almost all the teams in the Championship’s purgatorial region conceded fewer. Coupled with the loss of left-back Callum Elder to League One Derby County, leaving Brandom Fleming as the only recognised senior out-and-out left-back, things don’t look mightily promising. Although, George Cox is on trial after his contract expired at Fortuna Sittard.
There is an evident caution going on behind the scenes in Yorkshire’s East Riding, and I don’t blame them given the failure of their splurge last season. The only real bright spark beyond Estupiñán’s August purple patch was Ozan Tufan who provided some quality, and goals. I wonder if it is too cautious — part of the transfer game is just as much about acting fast as it is waiting for the right deals. The options out there will dwindle if Hull continue to dawdle.
Still, Rosenior has proved himself to be more than capable, as things stand I don’t see much hope — their end-of-season form was nothing to write home about. I could, of course, be absolutely wrong. We have to remember how strong the league is, and what others are doing around them. So, I’m sticking with my guns. 18th.
Ipswich Town, 12th
Last Season: 2nd (League One) / Top Scorer: Conor Chaplin (26) / FFT Prediction: 2nd
Manager: Kieran McKenna / Key Man: Conor Chaplin / Young Gun: Cameron Humprehys / Key Signing: Jack Taylor
Winners: 12/1 / Top 6: 6/4 / Relegation: 18/1
What. A. Bloody. Season. A league-high 101 goals scored and a league-low 35 conceded, a 2nd place finish in League One may seem harsh given the statistics, but I doubt many Ipswich fans will care all too much. Unbeaten since week 27, winning 14 of their final 19 games, it really was a complete romp back into tier 2 for the Tractor Boys.
Plaudits have been duly handed to manager Kieran McKenna, as has a four year contract extension. I’m sure the system McKenna has employed will be kept very much the same. Many of these players are more than capable of making the step up, and many have played at this level before too. I am, however, most interested to see how the likes of Leif Davis, Nathan Broadhead and Conor Chaplin perform.
All have played in the Championship before, but none to any real acclaim. Chaplin did notch 11 strikes for Barnsley back in 19/20, but it pales in comparison to his blistering 26 league goals last season. The hope is that he makes a real step up, at 26 Ipswich will be hoping he’s matured into the man to make a real dent in the league. Leif Davis provided 14 assists from LWB last season, and at 23 clearly has room to develop still. While Nathan Broadhead has perhaps slipped under the radar in comparison to his peers — but he has always scored goals wherever he’s been — 19 goals involvements in 21 games last year must not be overlooked.
Judging from their transfer dealings so far, McKenna is sticking to what he knows and has so far made no defensive reinforcements. You can’t blame him after the 23 clean sheets (1 every 2 games is rather insane) his back line kept last year. I am under no illusions that the impressive Davis, keeper extraordinaire Christian Walton, alongside Luke Woolfenden, Cam Burgess, speedster Wes Burns, Janoi Donacien, George Edmundson and hometown boy Harry Clarke will once form a formidable blue wall.
Incomings have been limited as a result, with Peterborough’s metronomic Jack Taylor coming in after a protracted chase, while the handy George Hirst (yep, son of) has made his loan permanent.
I don’t think they’ll make it to the top 6, but a top 12 finish is definitely on the cards. It would be foolhardy to not strengthen ever so slightly, though the exciting development of youngsters like Cam Humphreys could mean this is unnecessary. If some additions are made in the remainder of the window, my prediction could be proved (undoubtedly) wrong. 12th.
Leeds United, 7th
Last Season: 19th (Premier League) / Top Scorer: Rodrigo (13) / FFT Prediction: 17th
Manager: Daniel Farke / Key Man: Cysencio Summerville / Young Gun: Charlie Cresswell / Key Signing: N/A
Winners: 11/2 / Top 6: 5/6 / Relegation: 33/1
It makes sense, Daniel Farke coming in when he’s been promoted out of the league, quite impressively too, twice already. There is, however, a lot of work to be done. Obviously, Leeds will be right up there as favourites for an immediate return. I think we can all safely say that whatever the reasoning was for Bielsa’s departure it was *insert swear word* stupid.
Alas, it is an entirely new dawn for Leeds United once again. Andrea Radrizzani’s controlling stake was bought out by 49ers Enterprises just hours ago for 170m. After buying the club for 45m in 2017, he’ll be pretty happy with his own piece of personal transfer business this summer.
I’m unsure but I imagine Leeds fan will be happy with this news because it means investment. The stature of the club meant that they were able to attract some very good players during their Premier League years, but they’ve wasted no time in allowing these new players to depart Elland Road. Although, the only permanent loss is of last season’s top scorer, Rodrigo, who has swapped Yorkshire for Qatar, no idea why…
Koch, Llorente, Aaronson, Kristensen and Roca have all left for a handful of continental football playing clubs, which perhaps shows that the quality of the players was never the issue but rather those guiding them. I get it, Jesse Marsch was meant to be this free thinker who didn’t wear a suit with the Red Bull philosophy at his disposal. But, when you look at his record his only significant achievements were at a RB Salzburg side whose dominance in the Austrian Bundesliga may only be described as similar to a maddened Boris Johnson swatting flies. His subsequent record at RB Leipzig was poor and his Leeds record even worse — his win percentage dropping fro 38% to 29% between the two roles.
Enough about last season, it is done. Time for Leeds to refocus and rebuild. I would hasten to add that going up this year may not be the best thing for them. A year to build a solid foundation of young, hungry players who will undoubtedly want to play at a massive club in front of baying fans could be a better, long-term solution. Only time will tell what the approach will be, I suspect money will be flashed, lets just hope for the tortured Leeds fans’ sake its spent wisely.
So far there have been no incomings, which will soon change. Fortunately for Leeds they can look to what they already have. While the likes of Meslier, Firpo, Adams, Harrison, Gnonto and Sinisterra may all yet leave, there is a real blend of youth and experience just waiting to be sprung to life. Charlie Cresswell performed well at Millwall at this level last year, while Cody Drameh was promoted with Luton, Joe Gelhardt gained experience in an exciting Sunderland team while the likes of Darko Gyabi, Cysencio Summerville — who showed real flashes of brilliance last season and I reckon will be a standout this year— and Sam Greenwood will hope to show what they’re made of.
Luke Ayling, Stuart Dallas, Liam Cooper, Pascal Strujik and Patrick Bamford were all here the last time Leeds were promoted and there will be a reliance upon this experienced spine. While if Dan James remains he can be a handful on his day.
I feel as though there is just going to be a bit too much to rebuild here. They will either make the top two or finish just outside the playoffs — it’ll all depend on their transfer activity. Farke is a solid appointment at this level but in the long view, he’s only ever been relegated from the Prem. There’s too much going on behind the scenes, and no apparent plan in place. The bookies might have them odds on to finish top 6, but I think it’ll going to be close, but no cigar. 7th.
Leicester City, 1st
Last Season: 18th (Premier League) / Top Scorer: Harvey Barnes (13) / FFT Prediction: 8th
Manager: Enzo Maresca / Key Man: Patson Daka / Young Gun: Victor Kristiansen / Key Signing: Conor Coady
Winners: 4/1 / Top 6: 1/2 / Relegation: 50/1
I just can’t fathom it any other way. After the highs of recent years, no one would have expected Leicester to finish where they did last year. Getting rid of Rodgers, no matter how akin he is to David Brent, was a mistake in hindsight, and Dean Smith’s appointment was odd to say the very least. Still, you can see the logic in the appointment of Enzo Maresca. Interestingly, he began his first team career at none other than West Bromwich Albion before we sold him to Juventus for £4.3m before he went on to win Serie A in 2001/02.
Interesting facts aside, the Leicester owners have clearly looked at Kompany and Arteta and thought ‘yeah, we’ll have a bit of that’. Hiring a Pep Guardiola assistant is all the rage, and I can’t really see it ending in anything other than promotion. The obvious has happened already with big-name players leaving. Maddison, Söyüncü and Tielemans will undoubtedly be joined by Harvey Barnes, Timothy Castagne and Ricardo Pereira soon.
Impressively, Conor Coady, an England regular, and Harry Winks, a former England regular have joined, while Callum Doyle who was so impressive last season at Coventry, is the first incoming from the Manchester City link. Clearly, there are going to be few clubs who can compete financially. Coady and Winks aren’t going to be on peanuts, let's put it that way.
There should be little to worry about in the striking department too. Jamie Vardy may be slowing down but he’s far too good for the level, while if Patson Daka and Kelechi Ihaneacho remain there could be some serious drubbings on the cards. I think an exit for Ihaneacho may be more likely, but Patson Daka may finally show us what all the hype was about — a potentially seriously overpowered player at this level.
Meanwhile, Winks will be joined in the middle of the park by Wilfred Ndidi, the seemingly forgotten Dennis Praet, the trusted Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, plus Boubakary Soumaré and Hamza Choudhury are still at the club. So, a wealth of options — to put it lightly. There are some young defensive options too, I doubt James Justin will leave after his injury nightmares, and Victor Kristiansen and Luke Thomas can really develop at this level and add a bit of meat to their game. Lest we forget, Harry Souttar, Wout Faes and Jannik Vestegaard — none of whom covered themselves in glory last season — but they are all centre-backs with international caps. None have left the club either.
More players will come in and if Winks, Doyle and Coady are anything to go by I highly doubt we're going to see anything other than a top-two finish. There’s just too much know-how and ability in this team for anything else, a bit more squad depth and we’ll have our champions early doors. 1st.
Middlesbrough, 5th
Last Season: 4th / Top Scorer: Chuba Akpom (28) / FFT Prediction: 1st
Manager: Michael Carrick / Key Man: Chuba Akpom / Young Gun: Hayden Hackney/ Key Signing: Rav van den Berg
Winners: 10/1 / Top 6: 5/4 / Relegation: 20/1
A torrid start was remedied by the appointment of Michael Carrick which nicely flowed into some exceptional mid-season form. The playoff story was ultimately one of heartbreak — by the time it came around, ‘Boro were out of form.
They will hope that the experience will prove beneficial rather than the opposite. Many will feel ‘Boro have the means to mount a serious challenge next season. They will be hampered by the losses of the exceptional Cameron Archer, who should get a shot in the first team at parent club Villa after 11 goals, 6 assists and a U21 European Championship victory, and the beyond blessed left boot of Ryan Giles will also be sorely missed on the flanks of the Riverside.
Goals came from all over the shop, fellow Villa loanee Aaron Ramsey (nope, not son of) chipped in with 5, Duncan Watmore 5, Riley McGree 6, Matt Crooks 7, Marcus Forss 10, and EFL Championship Player of the Season, Chuba Akpom, with 28. Keeping Akpom will be the most vital bit of business Carrick does this summer. If he can replicate his form from last season there is no question that ‘Boro can be up at the right end of the table.
There have been signings so far, and they have been interesting — certainly not the kind I expected. Carrick has opted for the Australian market, picking up winger Sam Silvera and goalkeeper Tom Glover from A-League sides Central Coast Mariners and Melbourne City. Promising young defender Rav van den Berg comes in from PEC Zwolle, Seny Dieng comes in to replace the Man City returning Zach Steffen in net, while another young winger, Morgan Rogers, moves in the opposite direction for an undisclosed fee.
The transfer business is unorthodox, and some of the signings don’t make complete sense but Carrick will have a plan in place. Archer, Ramsey and Giles had previously undertaken EFL loans in the past but really stepped up their games at ‘Boro. The plan, I should imagine, would be to do the same with a fresh crop of hungry youngsters but this time with a permanent contract signed and valuable assets created. Add to the pile Hayden Hackney who enjoyed a stellar breakout season and the future looks bright on Teeside.
There has only been one key outgoing, Marc Bola heads to Turkey leaving no senior left-back in the squad. Matt Clarke is left-footed and could deputise there while a more suitable replacement for Bola and Giles is located.
I see it as business as usual for Middlesbrough, they’ve got the quality to be in the top 6 and that will be the minimum expectation. Carrick is a serial winner but he is up against stiff competition so I don’t think they have enough for the automatics. Expect a handful of new additions too, but I wouldn’t expect a near 30-goal season from Akpom, I think we’re looking at a handy 15–18 instead. 5th.
Millwall, 6th
Last Season: 8th / Top Scorer: Tom Bradshaw (17) / FFT Prediction: 14th
Manager: Gary Rowett / Key Man: Zian Flemming / Young Gun: Romain Esse / Key Signing: Joe Bryan
Winners: 25/1 / Top 6: 10/3 / Relegation: 15/2
Now, I do live in South East London so I’ve got to be careful about what I say here. I also go to a Millwall pub to watch games. Mainly because the pints are all under a fiver, it feels like a Black Country pub and the Guinness is the best I’ve had outside Ireland. So, I will be doubly careful as to what I say.
Bottlejobs.
I think that is the only word one can use in description of Millwall’s season last year. Just two wins from their last eight games is all you really need to know. It looked like the year Gary Rowett’s men finally did it. Finally gave us West Ham V Millwall so we could relive our youth watching Charlie Hunnam butcher a cockney accent in Green Street.
The signs were there with a laboured victory against relegated Blackpool on the penultimate day, before foiling a 3–1 lead at Blackburn to lose 4–3 and miss out on the playoffs by a point.
In the forthcoming season, I doubt Rowett will change all too much. Long-time servant Scott Malone has left on a free and Joe Bryan, who’s been promoted out of the league a fair few times, joins as a like-for-like replacement. While Kevin Nisbet joins from Hibernian with an impressive goal record but is very much an unknown quantity in English football. They are statement signings that signal the intent Rowett has to go one step further next season. The excellent Zian Flemming is, at present, still in the building and he proved a more than suitable replacement for Jed Wallace.
The main components of Millwall’s mean defence remain in place— they were the lowest-conceding team outside the top 6. Keeping hold of Murray Wallace, giant Jake Cooper, and Danny McNamara is key, though losing Charlie Cresswell back to Leeds is a big loss. The midfield remains strong, experienced and steely with Championship stalwarts George Honeyman, George Saville and Ryan Leonard more than capable of dictating and creating. Romain Esse also looks like an exciting talent who has received plaudits from his manager and is certainly one to watch out for.
Tom Bradshaw excelled in fits and spurts last season, 17 league goals was his best-ever return at this level. Now 30, the hope will be he can replicate this form and produce a fruitful partnership with Nisbet.
Millwall will battle their way into the top 6, spurred on by the drop-off from last season this will surely be Rowett’s final chance to guide them up. The platform is there, they’re attracting high-calibre players for the level, and now is the time for the Den to head to the Prem. 6th.
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Join me next time for the third instalment of the Championship predictions, where I’ll be chancing my arm at fate of the next 6 teams.
